Motley Fool Performance – February 2014

Here are the latest performance stats for all the Motley Fool services, since their inception. Not all of these are available on their public site.

The calculations follow the official methodology used by each of the services.

Check the Performance category posts on the right to see if more recent stats exist.

If you find these helpful, please take a second to rate the content by clicking on the stars below. You can also leave a comment or sign up via email to follow my blog and receive regular updates. If I get enough feedback that my readers find this sort of information, I will provide updated performance stats on a regular basis. Also, please people, let me know what you want to see more of in the way of stats.

Performance Highlights

The market recovered in February, with the 10% drop that pundits have been predicting for about a year now, still yet to happen. The last time the S&P dropped 10% was a 19% drop in October 2011, and historically they occur once a year, so by that trend, we are overdue. But if you sit on the sidelines waiting for that drop, you miss out on all the gains in between.

After a year of publishing these performance posts, the month to month story tends to remain the same. The winning growth-oriented services keep winning, the “too clever by half” losing services tend to keep losing, and the conservative value-oriented services eek out solid consistent returns.

The biggest winners across the last 12 months have been the 2 Supernova portfolios as well as the Everlasting portfolio.They were outperforming the S&P by low single digits, and now outperforming by 28 points for Phoenix and the Everlasting portfolios, and 38 points for Odyssey. These are the youngest services at Motley Fool and shows the value of the long term, buy and hold approach.

MDP Deep Value and Special Ops are digging themselves deeper and deeper holes throughout a great bull run. I personally am putting Special Ops on a death watch list, and won’t be surprised to see the plug get pulled on this poor performer.


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MF Performance Stats - 2014-02Feb

{ 7 comments… add one }
  • Frank Galdi March 9, 2014, 11:07 am

    Great stuff Kevin and your efforts are really appreciated. I’m a SA subscriber myself, and generally split my real world buys between David and Tom’s picks…so far I’ve been doing pretty well. Nice to see though, how the service I use stacks up vs. other services offered by MF.

    Not sure it’s not info that couldn’t be found on MF’s own website, but it might also be nice to see a percentage or straight numerical split between winners and losers. If, for example, 2 services both attain a hypothetical 90% return over time, I’d like to know if Service 1 did so with 18 winners and 16 losers, vs. Service 2 who had 1 mega-winner (10-bagger type stock) and 25 losers. Very exaggerated example for affect, but I’m sure you get the point. If this could be added…great; if not I still love what you’re doing and thanks again for your efforts!

    • Kevin March 10, 2014, 7:41 am

      Thanks for the input Frank. My full write-up pages show “accuracy” but they are slightly out of date at this point. I agree it’s an important metric however for most of investors and am looking at reporting on that either sparely or as part of the monthly updates.

  • Dan March 15, 2014, 2:07 pm

    Thanks Kevin for this great work and making it available to us all. I’m also a SA subscriber and would like to know more about the performance of their BBN vs. their monthly picks. I’ve seen some of this research on the boards but it is all several years old and would like to know if their BBN picks are any better or worse over time.

    Perhaps that is getting too much into the details of one or two of the services (vs. the comparison between the services that you have) but is information that I have a hard time finding elsewhere. I’m currently trying to make my own spreadsheet to analyze this data but is challenging to get the data going back in time and account for closing or selling recommendations.

    Thanks again for all your efforts!

    • Kevin March 15, 2014, 9:04 pm

      Thanks for the comment, Dan. A best buy analysis is on my to-do list but agree it would be interesting. Keep coming back to these pages or subscribe to my site in the meantime.

  • Robert Ryncarz March 16, 2014, 10:24 am

    Kevin – thank you for the great information and your conclusions from the data. I am trying to figure out whether to subscribe to Motley Fool ONE. I have subscribed to SA for many years now, with a total of 25 different equities I’ve selected over time in a $550,000 portfolio. Performance of those stocks are, using the new MF Scorecard data), XIRR = 23.9% and XIRR vs. X&P = 9.65%. Accuracy: 21/25 have net positive returns over their life; 13/25 have better returns compared to S&P.

    I don’t quite understand how the performance of my SA portfolio compares to the performance data you report. Can you illuminate? Also, I would love someone that I trust to manage those assets IF THE VALUE CREATED will likely significantly exceed the cost; I am willing to pay the cost. I do TRUST the MF team given my experience to date. Do you have a view on this?

    I also have another $1.1M, half of which is in a Fidelity E-trade 401k and the other half in a Fidelity deferred compensation from which I must draw each year. Am I able to have those funds managed in the MF ONE way?

    I would appreciate any info and insight you can provide. If it’s the right thing to do, I’d like to take advantage of the MF ONE opening this week. Gratefully, Bob

    • Kevin March 16, 2014, 6:05 pm

      Bob, thanks for the feedback. As to your returns on your MF scorecard vs. the returns I report, it’s hard to say without having more detail on how you are using the scorecard in terms of the detail you have provided. And even then it would be difficult to undertake. But if you look a the help section of the scorecard they have an FAQ tab that covers in detail the way you can view/measure performance. That might be helpful. But the returns for the SA service, as I report them, are total average returns. So if you have invested in 2 stocks and one returns 100% and the other 0% at the end of 5 years, the total average return would be 50%.

      Re: your other question on MF managing your portfolio, it sounds like that’s exactly what they are offering with the new SMA feature they are rolling out. You pick which of the portfolios (Supernova, Everlasting, Pro, etc.) you want to “match” and they will make all the trades for you themselves. You don’t have to do anything. But I don’t think you can keep your funds in your Fidelity account – I believe you’d have to transfer your funds to their custodian (and I’m not sure who that is, at this point). If you are truly interested, you might want to just give it a try for a year. They will give you a FULL refund (not prorated) for up to a year after you join. That gives you a chance to kick the tires and ask all the questions you want.


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